The Forced Migration of the Rohingya in Myanmar: A Case of Azar’s Protracted Social Conflict Theory

Abstract

The Rohingya Muslims of Myanmar have long endured systemic marginalization, culminating in what has become one of the most protracted and complex displacement crises of the 21st century. This paper applies Edward Azar’s (1990) Protracted Social Conflict (PSC) theory as an analytical framework to interrogate the structural and historical underpinnings of the Rohingya forced migration. By employing the PSC model’s four core 'Genesis factors': communal content, deprivation of human needs, governance and state function, and international linkages, this paper provides a comprehensive examination of how entrenched identity-based inequalities and governance failures have transformed a long-standing communal grievance into a protracted social conflict. Through this lens, the Rohingya case is not merely a humanitarian crisis but a paradigmatic instance of state-led structural violence, reinforced by regional politics and international inertia. The findings underscore the enduring relevance of PSC theory in understanding identity-driven conflicts and forced displacement in contemporary state systems.